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Testing Testing 123

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I need to rant about the Trump administration’s talking points on Covid-19 testing.  I’m not even going to get into Trump’s nonsensical statements about how testing causes cases or the need to slow the testing down. I trust that stupidity of those statements are self evident. The standard administration talking points while not quite as dumb aren’t much more informative and better serve to misdirect the public from the colossal failures of this administration   

Whenever the subject of testing comes up, the Trump administration gives the same response, they tout the millions and millions of tests that have been given, and frustratingly that seems to usually end the conversation.  They deliver their talking point and then everybody moves on to the next topic Listening to the Trump administration is so frustrating because they are so repetitive yet  their arguments are so shallow that they would crumble under the slightest cross examination that rarely ever comes.   

Whenever the topic of testing comes up the Trump administration only talks about testing supply.  They’ll list how many tests were given in a day or year to date. And in absolute terms,  absent context, they can relatively accurately toss out some fairly large numbers.  A million this or 10 million that, those  numbers sound impressive. Trump of course will lie about how it’s more than X number of countries combined but it is true that a lot of tests are being done.   

What the Trump administration never wants to discuss however is testing demand and that’s side of the equation which determines whether or not they are meeting the moment (which obviously explains why they don’t want to discuss it). If the supplied testing isn’t meeting the demand, and it’s not, given the long lines at testing sites, the 7-10 day waits to get results, testing in some places still being limited to people who have had direct contact with the virus or are exhibiting symptoms, then despite the millions of tests they aren’t getting the job done.  This is a once in a generation pandemic so by definition any response is going to be “historic” or “never done before” but those should not be seen as synonyms for successfully meeting the moment or doing a good job.    

The other aspect of testing which is even important to understanding the failure of this administration’s response to the pandemic, is that the entire goal of testing in the macro sense, the metric for a successful testing program is not just to meet the demand for testing but more so it is to reduce the demand for testing!  Producing millions and millions and millions of tests might be a tactical success but it signifies a strategic failure.  Testing should be one element, a key element, in suppressing the spread of the virus. Take New Zealand for example, New Zealand has tested 431,263 people to date, as in total, from the beginning of the outbreak to July 13. The US is testing over 600,000 people per day. It would be ridiculous to use those numbers to suggest American leadership has a better response to Coronavirus than New Zealand. And yet, when asked about their response to the virus the Trump administration will invariably point to the number of tests that are taking place. Not getting pushback on this allows them that push policies such as  “opening up the economy” and reopening schools that will  continue to lead to an increased demand for testing, which they will meet some percentage of and then turn around and tout that as a measure of success.  Every continued week in which millions of tests are needed should be regarded as evidence of the failure of the Trump administration and not the success story they want to paint it as. 


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